(Original text: March 8, 2022)
With
Russia's attack on Ukraine, eyes were again turned to Bosnia. Bosnia's worst
crisis since the Dayton Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995, reached
its peak in December, and many Western experts even claimed that Bosnia was on
the brink of war.
However, neither those who made these claims nor the author of this column thought that Russia would launch a military attack on Ukraine in this article. In the changing conjuncture, it is necessary to re-consider the facts.
Western know-it-all experts once again asked, "After Ukraine, will it be Bosnia's turn?" We have to admit that as a broken clock shows the true time twice a day, there is a high probability that they may be right. Yes, after Ukraine, it may be Bosnia's turn. Much depends on Russia's military success. If Russia is successful in Ukraine and strengthens its hand in the region, Dodik, who is watching what is going on silently, will suddenly turn into a tiger.
First of all, let's say this: Dodik is not the only one who follows the Ukraine war with full attention. As you know, Serbia did not accept to impose sanctions on Russia and this situation was very strange in Europe. Immediately, the fuss started: “A country that does not oppose an autocrat like Putin has no place in the EU! If Serbia, which supports Putin enters the EU, the problems that EU values face in Poland and Hungary will remain zero on the left.” But there is something that these experts miss: The EU wind is not as effective in the Balkans as it used to be, and a stick-carrot strategy through the EU is no longer valid. There are hardly any politicians trying to blow their sails with the EU wind. For a while, the EU is out of sight from Balkan politics, Russia is closer.
Nevertheless, we can say that "Russianism" is more popular in Serbian politics, although Serbian President Aleksander Vucic does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, but still tries to remain as neutral as possible at the discursive level. Recently, the speaker of the Serbian National Assembly, Ivica Dacic, said very openly that imposing sanctions on Russia and imposing sanctions on Serbia means the same thing, and asked: “If Kosovo becomes a NATO member tomorrow, who will we ask for help? Of course Russia"
In Serbia, and in Republika Srpska, the public seems to endorse Dacic's rhetoric. Pro-Putin and pro-Russian demonstrations are held in some cities of Serbia, especially in Belgrade, and even in Montenegro and RS (Republika Srpska). Of course, we do not deny that there were demonstrations in favor of Ukraine against them, but it is very good that just before the start of the Bosnian War, 100 thousand people demonstrated for peace in Belgrade, and that the murderers who went to war in Bosnia were from towns outside Belgrade, from Montenegro and from Serbian settlements in Bosnia, but only a few from Belgrade.
Russia's friends in the Balkans now know very well that unlike NATO, which previously provoked Georgia and Ukraine today, Russia has the courage to intervene in armed conflict when necessary. This is what confuses some Balkan politicians: Those kleptocratic bandits who are eager to use Russia's confrontational prowess for their regional pragmatic policies!
While these robber bandits in the Balkans are waiting for the outcome of the war, Russia does not leave the field empty. On Monday (February 28, 2022), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Dodik, the Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, reminding him to fulfill the requirements of the agreement they made with Putin last December. No one knows the requirements in this agreement. The Russian Embassy in Sarajevo, which made a press statement on the same evening, said that this phone call was made at Dodik's request, and that the EU and NATO's attempts to violate the Dayton Agreement against the will of Republika Srpska were discussed.
Here it can be concluded that Dodik received very serious support from Russia and that Russia openly cooperated with Dodik to expand its dominance in the Balkans, which is not unknown. What is unknown, or unknown to most, is that Russia-RS relations are a cooperation beyond just political ground. Russian businessmen such as Rashid Serdarov, Evgeny Zotov and Konstantin Malofeev are known for their investments in RS. The RS functions as an important stepping stone for Russian oligarchs to open up to the Balkan and even the Mediterranean market.
What's more, RS does not come across Russia with any bargaining cards. Neither the EU, nor NATO, nor even Serbia can offer anything beyond what Russia can offer. In fact, neither the EU nor NATO can offer anything to Dodik. Anything to be offered to a political structure built on genocide is questionable, where even the existence of this structure’s legimity is questionable. Russia's support in line with the win-win strategy is a unique opportunity for Dodik.
Dodik is waiting… He will act as soon when he hears of Russia's victory.
EUFOR, which left Bosnia in the hands of the cleptocratic regime, came to a standstill. A total of 3500 soldiers of the EUFOR (peacekeeping force in Bosnia) remained in the mission, of which only 600 were on the ground in Bosnia. Last week, another 500 soldiers were sent to Bosnia. Images of armored vehicles accompanying the soldiers, pictures and videos taken while the convoy was taking a break in Zenica and on the highway tolls went viral on social media. On Monday morning (March 7, 2022), EUFOR soldiers with camouflage and ski masks were seen wandering like tourists around the center of Sarajevo. As of this week, Rafale jets departing from France's Charles-de-Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Adriatic will begin their flights over the Balkans as part of the Althea operation. (Althea: codename of the operation responsible for monitoring the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia)
Exactly 25 years later, these images, in which military vehicles and camouflaged soldiers were so heavily involved in the public sphere, were enough to frighten Bosnians. Zeljko Komsic, the only non-nationalist member of the Bosnian Presidency Council, is aware that in the event of a war, neither the EU nor NATO will be able to help: "If we do not protect our country, no one else will," he says. Who will protect Bosnia in the event of a war is in doubt. Will the people of a country that has been exploited for 25 years go to the front to protect the homeland?
The reverse may also be true for Bosnian Serbs. Dodik's arrogant comment to the incoming EUFOR support was simple: "Let them bring 5000 soldiers if they want." Of course, Dodik does not have a military unit equipped to confront these 500 soldiers. The number of maniacs willing to lay down their lives for the cleptocratic regime in RS is also limited. Dodik does not have an army, but Serbia does, and Russia, which does not hesitate to intervene in Ukraine, has enough weapons to feed the bandits in RS at any moment.
In Bosnia, where military vehicles resurfaced after 25 years, the first bombs fell into the pockets of the people. Fuel prices have increased here as well, and queues have formed at the fuel stations.
However, neither those who made these claims nor the author of this column thought that Russia would launch a military attack on Ukraine in this article. In the changing conjuncture, it is necessary to re-consider the facts.
Western know-it-all experts once again asked, "After Ukraine, will it be Bosnia's turn?" We have to admit that as a broken clock shows the true time twice a day, there is a high probability that they may be right. Yes, after Ukraine, it may be Bosnia's turn. Much depends on Russia's military success. If Russia is successful in Ukraine and strengthens its hand in the region, Dodik, who is watching what is going on silently, will suddenly turn into a tiger.
First of all, let's say this: Dodik is not the only one who follows the Ukraine war with full attention. As you know, Serbia did not accept to impose sanctions on Russia and this situation was very strange in Europe. Immediately, the fuss started: “A country that does not oppose an autocrat like Putin has no place in the EU! If Serbia, which supports Putin enters the EU, the problems that EU values face in Poland and Hungary will remain zero on the left.” But there is something that these experts miss: The EU wind is not as effective in the Balkans as it used to be, and a stick-carrot strategy through the EU is no longer valid. There are hardly any politicians trying to blow their sails with the EU wind. For a while, the EU is out of sight from Balkan politics, Russia is closer.
Nevertheless, we can say that "Russianism" is more popular in Serbian politics, although Serbian President Aleksander Vucic does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, but still tries to remain as neutral as possible at the discursive level. Recently, the speaker of the Serbian National Assembly, Ivica Dacic, said very openly that imposing sanctions on Russia and imposing sanctions on Serbia means the same thing, and asked: “If Kosovo becomes a NATO member tomorrow, who will we ask for help? Of course Russia"
In Serbia, and in Republika Srpska, the public seems to endorse Dacic's rhetoric. Pro-Putin and pro-Russian demonstrations are held in some cities of Serbia, especially in Belgrade, and even in Montenegro and RS (Republika Srpska). Of course, we do not deny that there were demonstrations in favor of Ukraine against them, but it is very good that just before the start of the Bosnian War, 100 thousand people demonstrated for peace in Belgrade, and that the murderers who went to war in Bosnia were from towns outside Belgrade, from Montenegro and from Serbian settlements in Bosnia, but only a few from Belgrade.
Russia's friends in the Balkans now know very well that unlike NATO, which previously provoked Georgia and Ukraine today, Russia has the courage to intervene in armed conflict when necessary. This is what confuses some Balkan politicians: Those kleptocratic bandits who are eager to use Russia's confrontational prowess for their regional pragmatic policies!
While these robber bandits in the Balkans are waiting for the outcome of the war, Russia does not leave the field empty. On Monday (February 28, 2022), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Dodik, the Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, reminding him to fulfill the requirements of the agreement they made with Putin last December. No one knows the requirements in this agreement. The Russian Embassy in Sarajevo, which made a press statement on the same evening, said that this phone call was made at Dodik's request, and that the EU and NATO's attempts to violate the Dayton Agreement against the will of Republika Srpska were discussed.
Here it can be concluded that Dodik received very serious support from Russia and that Russia openly cooperated with Dodik to expand its dominance in the Balkans, which is not unknown. What is unknown, or unknown to most, is that Russia-RS relations are a cooperation beyond just political ground. Russian businessmen such as Rashid Serdarov, Evgeny Zotov and Konstantin Malofeev are known for their investments in RS. The RS functions as an important stepping stone for Russian oligarchs to open up to the Balkan and even the Mediterranean market.
What's more, RS does not come across Russia with any bargaining cards. Neither the EU, nor NATO, nor even Serbia can offer anything beyond what Russia can offer. In fact, neither the EU nor NATO can offer anything to Dodik. Anything to be offered to a political structure built on genocide is questionable, where even the existence of this structure’s legimity is questionable. Russia's support in line with the win-win strategy is a unique opportunity for Dodik.
Dodik is waiting… He will act as soon when he hears of Russia's victory.
EUFOR, which left Bosnia in the hands of the cleptocratic regime, came to a standstill. A total of 3500 soldiers of the EUFOR (peacekeeping force in Bosnia) remained in the mission, of which only 600 were on the ground in Bosnia. Last week, another 500 soldiers were sent to Bosnia. Images of armored vehicles accompanying the soldiers, pictures and videos taken while the convoy was taking a break in Zenica and on the highway tolls went viral on social media. On Monday morning (March 7, 2022), EUFOR soldiers with camouflage and ski masks were seen wandering like tourists around the center of Sarajevo. As of this week, Rafale jets departing from France's Charles-de-Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Adriatic will begin their flights over the Balkans as part of the Althea operation. (Althea: codename of the operation responsible for monitoring the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia)
Exactly 25 years later, these images, in which military vehicles and camouflaged soldiers were so heavily involved in the public sphere, were enough to frighten Bosnians. Zeljko Komsic, the only non-nationalist member of the Bosnian Presidency Council, is aware that in the event of a war, neither the EU nor NATO will be able to help: "If we do not protect our country, no one else will," he says. Who will protect Bosnia in the event of a war is in doubt. Will the people of a country that has been exploited for 25 years go to the front to protect the homeland?
The reverse may also be true for Bosnian Serbs. Dodik's arrogant comment to the incoming EUFOR support was simple: "Let them bring 5000 soldiers if they want." Of course, Dodik does not have a military unit equipped to confront these 500 soldiers. The number of maniacs willing to lay down their lives for the cleptocratic regime in RS is also limited. Dodik does not have an army, but Serbia does, and Russia, which does not hesitate to intervene in Ukraine, has enough weapons to feed the bandits in RS at any moment.
In Bosnia, where military vehicles resurfaced after 25 years, the first bombs fell into the pockets of the people. Fuel prices have increased here as well, and queues have formed at the fuel stations.
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