WILL THERE BE A NEW WAR IN BOSNIA?

(Original text: Published in May 16, 2016)

Recent developments in Balkans, like admission of Kosovo first to UEFA and to FIFA, re-opening of Ferhadija Mosque in Banja Luka, the capital city of the Serbian entity, which was demolished during the Bosnian War and lastly the demonstrations in Banja Luka by March 14, 2016 were all enough to warm up Bosnian politics. Some talk about an armed conflict or even a new war likely to happen in Bosnia? How realistic is this?

The rise of the ultra-right politics was the focus of the previous article. One of the points that we took attention was the fact that, those political parties who were responsible from the breakup of Yugoslavia are again currently holding the power in ex-Yugoslav republics. The main actors of the nationalist monsters are again in the power. Even Seselj, from whom even Milosevic was discontent of his extreme “practices” is again in the Serbian parliament

Like a nightmare! Those who transformed Yugoslavia into a blood lake are governing the countries again.

Moreover, the recent developments in May 2016 made Bosnia to be more in political tension.

If it winds in Kosovo, Bosnia catches cold. It was in Kosovo where the first crisis in Yugoslavia occurred, and followed by devastation of Bosnia. Since some time Bosnian Serb Republic (Republika Srpska – RS) claims independency referring to the independency of Kosovo. In May 2016, despite 24 votes against, with 28 votes Kosovo became member of UEFA and followed by membership to FIFA after a meeting in Mexico in May 13 where membership of Gibraltar was also confirmed.

This was like a cold shower for Serbia who still defines Kosovo as part of Serbia. However, having no other political vision than EU membership, Serbia has not other choice than accepting the bitter reality. Yet, last week (May 2016) the deputy director of European Parliament and Kosovo Reporter Ulrike Lunacek warned once Serbia again that Serbia cannot be member of EU without recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign state.

Serbia is politically locked in that sense, but the naughty brother, RS was not late to use this opportunity and claimed that if UEFA and FIFA recognizes Kosovo, than they have to accept membership of RS as well. Indeed, this is not so easy, since Dayton Peace Accord does not allow such a thing.

Two weeks ago (May 2016) Bosnia probably faced with one of the biggest political crisis since the end of the war.

Ferhadija Mosque in Banja Luka (capital city of RS), built in Ottoman Era and being demolished with 16 more mosques at May 6-7, 1993 despite being under protection of UNESCO, was restored and re-opened in May 7, 2016. When the reconstruction of the mosque have started in 2001, the start-up ceremony was attacked by about a thousand Cetniks (Serbian nationalists) firing the vehicles around and besieged the building of Bosnian Islamic Union where 250 Bosnian Muslims as well as Jacques Klein, the representative of UN in Bosnia and ambassadors of England, Sweden and Pakistan were also inside. One Bosnian Muslim was killed and 30 people were injured.

Nothing feared happened in May 7, 2016 in the opening ceremony of Ferhadija Mosque where highest security measures were taken and EUFOR battalions were ready to involve in a possible conflict.

This is partly due to the fact that Serbian nationalists have a bit of trouble nowadays. Since the bully tempered RS president Milorad Dodik's SNSD lost 2014 elections, RS is in a serious political crisis. There were two demonstrations last Sunday in Banja Luka organized by Dodik's supporters and opponents. Until the elections in October 2016, it is expected that the political tension will be tightened and may have serious implications in a country stuck into corruption and poverty.

Since the founder of RS; Radovan Karadzic is subjected as committing genocide in Bosnia, the legitimacy of RS as a state founded on genocide, is more under question. No doubt that this issue is well exploited by Bosnian Muslim and Bosnian Croat politicians who cannot offer anything to their people than a corrupted state and poor citizens. That is what they do the best for 20 years.

All those events and facts that are mentioned above brings one question: Can there be a war in Bosnia as a result of all of those political crises? The Western political analysts are very likely to speak about war in any part of the world. However, the dynamics of contemporary Bosnia is not the same as it was 20 years ago. Those nationalist leaders who took advantage of the war, know very well that in case of a war, they can easily lose their positions. Moreover, Bosnia with a disfunctional state very far away of being a threat to imperialism. Thus, a change in status quo in Bosnia is not favoured by imperialism. In addition to that, neither Croatia, who is just accepted in EU would risk to arm Bosnian Croats, nor Serbia who is just domesticated on the path to EU would prefer to risk the journey to EU by falling into the adventure of “Greater Serbia“. Bosnian Muslim politicians on the other side are very much busy with exploiting the limited resources of the country.

If a war in Bosnia will happen, this might be a war against all of those blood sucking current politicians!

BILO JEDNOM JEDNA ZEMLJA (ONCE UPON A TIME THERE WAS A COUNTRY)

Original text: Published in December 14,2013

AVNOJ (Antifašističko Vijeće Narodnog Oslobođenja Jugoslavije – Yugoslav Antifascist National Liberation Council) was established in Bihaç / Bosnia in November 26, 1942. Having bravely fought not only against the Nazis, but also against Ustaşa (Croatian fascists) and Çetniks (Serbian fascists), they gathered again in Bosnian city Jajce between the dates November 21-29, 1943. In the last day of the meeting the foundations of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia were laid.

After the liberation from the Nazi occupation, November 29 was celebrated as “The Republic Day” in Yugoslavia under the leadership of Tito. However, during the last years of Yugoslavia, the Republic Day was impassionately celebrated by only state officials. June 25, 1991 is the de facto end of Yugoslavia, when the two most prosperous states of Yugoslavia, namely Slovenia and Croatia declared independence and while it was immediately recognized by the West. After Macedonia’s and Bosnia’s declaration of independence, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia existed de jure until 2003 with Serbia and Montenegro.

The time period between 1991 and 2003 has a tragedic imagination in the memories of people who lived in ex-Yugoslav republics. During this time period of 12 years, Milosevic, who claimed to prolonge the legacy of Yugoslavia, had simply slaughtered the positive perception of Yugoslavia in blood.

Establishment of free Kosovo under UÇK’s terror, 1999 NATO bombardment and the post-Milosevic collaboratist governments do not change this reality. Milosevic’s regime, neither supported the equality of peoples against UÇK terror, nor did it have an anti-imperialist stand against NATO bombardment. Since Tito’s death, Milosevic’s aim was clear: To upside down Tito’s “weaker Serbia, stronger Yugoslavia” to “smaller Yugoslavia, greater Serbia”. Milosevic was not only significant by practicing the most archaic forms of nationalism, but also was recognized with his attack against working class at home.

This period of twelve years had a significant perceptual change in Bosnia, which was recognized as the most Yugoslav republic of Yugoslavia. Despite the time passed by, it is difficult to clear this perception. While JNA (Yugoslav People’s Army) was retreating from Bosnia, it is known that most of the heavy weapons were left to Çetniks (ultra nationalist paramilitary Serbian armed units) and the massacres in Bosnia were done by those weapons.

Despite the fresh scars of the war, the warm memories of Yugoslavia revitalizes in ex-Yugoslavia as well as in Bosnia, often visible in the sphere of popular culture. It was a case that in the 70th anniversary of the November 29, 1943 Jajce meeting of the AVNOJ, shared visual items referring to Yugoslavia had an apparent increase. Especially Yugoslav flag with the red star in the middle or Tito’s photos were frequently visible in facebook profiles.

It is widely known by the public that the image of Yugoslavia, which had been polluted under Milosevic regime, is reviving within the concept of Yugonostalgia. Republic Day (November 29) or Day of Youth (May 25) are began to be celebrated in the urban centres of ex-Yugoslavia with fireworks.

An academics, Goran Markoviç, recognized as being leader of Communist Workers’ Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (which does not exist anymore), took attention to an important point during the interview which published in Abraş Media, analternative media web site on November 29. Markoviç underlined the context that the Yugoslav experience is not only an issue that has to be studied by the historians, but by the citizens of banana republics. He argues that the image and perception of Yugoslavia should not be a part of nostalgia, but has to be a part of future. Markoviç also takes attention on the current situation of ex-Yugoslav republics which are stuck in corruption and argues that the AVNOJ experience must be considered as an alternative in the future.  (1)

Although we can talk about a constant revival of the positive image of Yugoslavia in the sphere of popular culture, similar dynamics are not yet reflected on the political sphere and it seems it will take some time for that. The Left in ex-Yugoslavia still could not cure the wounds of the nationalist demolition. On the other side, and more importantly, the socialist or communist parties in ex-Yugoslavia were unable to train experienced cadres which would replace the veterans and this is the main obstacle for the ex-Yugoslav Left to go further in political sphere.

In addition to that, the ex-Yugoslav left did not go through a process of criticism of Yugoslav socialism, or so-called Titoism. There is even not any attempt for that. As a result of not passing through a process of (self) criticism and an interruption in the continuity of the political cadres, the reviving positive perception of Yugoslavia is not reflected on political spheres since the socialist/communist parties are not seen as political alternatives which could carry Yugonostalgia to political platform.