After Ukraine, is it Bosnia's turn?

(Original text: March 8, 2022)

With Russia's attack on Ukraine, eyes were again turned to Bosnia. Bosnia's worst crisis since the Dayton Agreement, which ended the Bosnian War in 1995, reached its peak in December, and many Western experts even claimed that Bosnia was on the brink of war.

However, neither those who made these claims nor the author of this column thought that Russia would launch a military attack on Ukraine in this article. In the changing conjuncture, it is necessary to re-consider the facts.

Western know-it-all experts once again asked, "After Ukraine, will it be Bosnia's turn?" We have to admit that as a broken clock shows the true time twice a day, there is a high probability that they may be right. Yes, after Ukraine, it may be Bosnia's turn. Much depends on Russia's military success. If Russia is successful in Ukraine and strengthens its hand in the region, Dodik, who is watching what is going on silently, will suddenly turn into a tiger.

First of all, let's say this: Dodik is not the only one who follows the Ukraine war with full attention. As you know, Serbia did not accept to impose sanctions on Russia and this situation was very strange in Europe. Immediately, the fuss started: “A country that does not oppose an autocrat like Putin has no place in the EU! If Serbia, which supports Putin enters the EU, the problems that EU values ​​face in Poland and Hungary will remain zero on the left.” But there is something that these experts miss: The EU wind is not as effective in the Balkans as it used to be, and a stick-carrot strategy through the EU is no longer valid. There are hardly any politicians trying to blow their sails with the EU wind. For a while, the EU is out of sight from Balkan politics, Russia is closer.

Nevertheless, we can say that "Russianism" is more popular in Serbian politics, although Serbian President Aleksander Vucic does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, but still tries to remain as neutral as possible at the discursive level. Recently, the speaker of the Serbian National Assembly, Ivica Dacic, said very openly that imposing sanctions on Russia and imposing sanctions on Serbia means the same thing, and asked: “If Kosovo becomes a NATO member tomorrow, who will we ask for help? Of course Russia"

In Serbia, and in Republika Srpska, the public seems to endorse Dacic's rhetoric. Pro-Putin and pro-Russian demonstrations are held in some cities of Serbia, especially in Belgrade, and even in Montenegro and RS (Republika Srpska). Of course, we do not deny that there were demonstrations in favor of Ukraine against them, but it is very good that just before the start of the Bosnian War, 100 thousand people demonstrated for peace in Belgrade, and that the murderers who went to war in Bosnia were from towns outside Belgrade, from Montenegro and from Serbian settlements in Bosnia, but only a few from Belgrade.

Russia's friends in the Balkans now know very well that unlike NATO, which previously provoked Georgia and Ukraine today, Russia has the courage to intervene in armed conflict when necessary. This is what confuses some Balkan politicians: Those kleptocratic bandits who are eager to use Russia's confrontational prowess for their regional pragmatic policies!

While these robber bandits in the Balkans are waiting for the outcome of the war, Russia does not leave the field empty. On Monday (February 28, 2022), Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Dodik, the Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, reminding him to fulfill the requirements of the agreement they made with Putin last December. No one knows the requirements in this agreement. The Russian Embassy in Sarajevo, which made a press statement on the same evening, said that this phone call was made at Dodik's request, and that the EU and NATO's attempts to violate the Dayton Agreement against the will of Republika Srpska were discussed.

Here it can be concluded that Dodik received very serious support from Russia and that Russia openly cooperated with Dodik to expand its dominance in the Balkans, which is not unknown. What is unknown, or unknown to most, is that Russia-RS relations are a cooperation beyond just political ground. Russian businessmen such as Rashid Serdarov, Evgeny Zotov and Konstantin Malofeev are known for their investments in RS. The RS functions as an important stepping stone for Russian oligarchs to open up to the Balkan and even the Mediterranean market.

What's more, RS does not come across Russia with any bargaining cards. Neither the EU, nor NATO, nor even Serbia can offer anything beyond what Russia can offer. In fact, neither the EU nor NATO can offer anything to Dodik. Anything to be offered to a political structure built on genocide is questionable, where even the existence of this structure’s legimity is questionable. Russia's support in line with the win-win strategy is a unique opportunity for Dodik.

Dodik is waiting… He will act as soon when he hears of Russia's victory.

EUFOR, which left Bosnia in the hands of the cleptocratic regime, came to a standstill. A total of 3500 soldiers of the EUFOR (peacekeeping force in Bosnia) remained in the mission, of which only 600 were on the ground in Bosnia. Last week, another 500 soldiers were sent to Bosnia. Images of armored vehicles accompanying the soldiers, pictures and videos taken while the convoy was taking a break in Zenica and on the highway tolls went viral on social media. On Monday morning (March 7, 2022), EUFOR soldiers with camouflage and ski masks were seen wandering like tourists around the center of Sarajevo. As of this week, Rafale jets departing from France's Charles-de-Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Adriatic will begin their flights over the Balkans as part of the Althea operation. (Althea: codename of the operation responsible for monitoring the Dayton Agreement in Bosnia)

Exactly 25 years later, these images, in which military vehicles and camouflaged soldiers were so heavily involved in the public sphere, were enough to frighten Bosnians. Zeljko Komsic, the only non-nationalist member of the Bosnian Presidency Council, is aware that in the event of a war, neither the EU nor NATO will be able to help: "If we do not protect our country, no one else will," he says. Who will protect Bosnia in the event of a war is in doubt. Will the people of a country that has been exploited for 25 years go to the front to protect the homeland?

The reverse may also be true for Bosnian Serbs. Dodik's arrogant comment to the incoming EUFOR support was simple: "Let them bring 5000 soldiers if they want." Of course, Dodik does not have a military unit equipped to confront these 500 soldiers. The number of maniacs willing to lay down their lives for the cleptocratic regime in RS is also limited. Dodik does not have an army, but Serbia does, and Russia, which does not hesitate to intervene in Ukraine, has enough weapons to feed the bandits in RS at any moment.

In Bosnia, where military vehicles resurfaced after 25 years, the first bombs fell into the pockets of the people. Fuel prices have increased here as well, and queues have formed at the fuel stations.

WILL THERE BE A NEW WAR IN BOSNIA?

 

(Original text: November 8, 2021)

About four and a half years ago, on May 16, 2017, we published an article with the same headline, word for word: “Will there be a new war in Bosnia?” The usual discourse that was regularly put in front of us was also in the headlines of the newspapers last week: “There could be a war in Bosnia at any moment”, “Bosnia has never been closer to armed conflict since the war”, “Bosnia” war looks at a single spark”. Those who follow Bosnia know that nothing is as it seems in Bosnia. Just as the war broke out 25 years ago when no one thought it would be possible, today the war is just as distant as the drums of war are beating.

We ended our article published years ago with the following lines:

“All those events and facts that are mentioned above brings one question: Can there be a war in Bosnia as a result of all of those political crises? The Western political analysts are very likely to speak about war in any part of the world. However, the dynamics of contemporary Bosnia is not the same as it was 20 years ago. Those nationalist leaders who took advantage of the war, know very well that in case of a war, they can easily lose their positions. Moreover, Bosnia with an disfunctional state very far away of being a threat to imperialism. Thus, a change in status quo in Bosnia is not favoured by imperialism. In addition to that, neither Croatia, who is just accepted in EU would risk to arm Bosnian Croats, nor Serbia who is just domesticated on the path to EU would prefer to risk the journey to EU by falling into the adventure of “Greater Serbia“. Bosnian Muslim politicians on the other side are very much busy with exploiting the limited resources of the country."

The criteria for becoming an expert on Bosnia are very simple: You visit Bosnia for a week as a tourist, take a tour in Bascarsija, eat pies and pastries, drink a cup of Bosnian coffee in a coffeehouse overlooking the Mostar bridge, take a selfie on the porch of the Tekija in Blagaj next to spring of the Una river, and you become an expert on Bosnia! If you have watched two Kusturica movies, you will have skills to analyse the whole social and political structure.

It is very interesting that when there are so many Bosnian experts in Turkey, whether they are Islamist, Turanist/nationalist, liberal or social democrat, regardless of their political identity, the information sources of these experts about Bosnia are often the Western media they sneer at. They follow Bosnia through channels that report on information originating from Brussels or Washington, and these sources say that war could break out at any moment in Bosnia today.

The reason is the ignorant statements of an idiot who is about to lose his seat and gets more ridiculous and aggressive as he approaches the end. (Sounds familiar, right!) We are talking about Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the tripartite presidential system in Bosnia.

Dodik, the leader of the autonomous Republic of Srpska in Bosnia, which was built on massacres and genocide and whose existence somehow continues even though the genocide was accepted by international courts, is known for his rudeness and arrogance.

This Dodik have nicely spoke nonsense again in mid-October that he was going to make certain institutions of Bosnia to leave the Republic of Srpska. Which institutions? The armed forces, the judiciary and the tax office, which are indispensable elements for the security, legal and financial system of a state. Mr Dodik would not be satisfied with this and would close the SIPA (State Investigation and Protection Agency) and the Constitutional Court.

Where does Dodik get the power to speak so indecently? First; from Russia. As NATO makes moves to swallow the Balkans, Russia threatens to put Balkans into chaos with her interventions.

But the main source of strength for Dodik's arrogance comes from the dysfunctionality of the Bosnian state. Much has been written on these pages: The Dayton Peace, which put an end to the Bosnian War, made the enmity between the warring parties eternal while putting an end to the war, and on top of that, it built an absurd governance regime that could not be seen in the history of the world. Two autonomous regions, 10 cantons, a special-status entity, a system where the president changes every 8 months according to his ethnic identity, and all this is in a small country like Bosnia!

It should come as no surprise that such a regime would become clogged. It should not surprise anyone that corruption and poverty are at an unbearable level in a country where politics is based on ethnic identities.

This is the source where Dodik finds his real power: A state that doesn't work!

He actually gets what he wants if he loses his mind, but he says that his aim is to gain more autonomy without destroying the territorial integrity of Bosnia, in order not to look like he is violating Dayton, and adds: “There is no war, there will be no war and there is no possibility of a war. !”

While saying this, he does not hesitate to hold an exercise on the Jahorina Mountain next to Sarajevo on October 22 with the participation of armoured vehicles, helicopters and special police forces armed with camouflage and assault weapons. Supposedly, it was an exercise carried out as part of the fight against terrorism.

The reactions against Dodik rose immediately. The US, which has already banned Dodik from entering the country, warned that if he continues his separatist moves, some sanctions will be applied. Gabriel Escobar, the new US special envoy for the Balkans, also arrived in Bosnia last Saturday and declared: “The closing down of institutions belonging to the Bosnian State by the Republic of Srspka is unacceptable according to Dayton.”

The new High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, demanded a response at the UN level to these statements of Dodik, and warned that these actions of Dodik would cause a crisis not in a single country, but in the international arena, and brought the usual discourse: “Bosnia is in danger of disintegrating and the possibility of an armed conflict is a very realistic prediction”

The probability was so realistic!

This statement made the headlines in the Western media, and the drums of war began to sound. After all, there is a "very realistic" statement expressed at first hand!

But it is also known that; The reality of the West and the reality of the Balkans often do not coincide.

Bosnia has an election next year. In the last election, Dodik lost very important positions and it is said that this rude, arrogant bandit may end up in the junk of politics in the next election. Dodik has nothing to offer his electorate, but warlike prowess and nationalist provocation.

This heroism and nationalist provocation is not only beneficial for Serbian nationalists, but also for Croat and Bosniak conservatists. Inevitable; nationalisms feed each other and they do not have to hide the corruption and impoverishment in the society.

Well, will there be a war?

To answer this question, the correct question would be: Who benefits from war? To those who use a country as their own farm? Those who have already turned the country into a slaughterhouse? Is it imperialism that holds the country in the palm of its hand? Who does it benefit?

Order is already established and no one wants to risk their own position. Moreover, all these nationalist leaders know very well that from now on, no one will fight for them except a handful of lunatic fanatics.