WILL THERE BE A NEW WAR IN BOSNIA?

 

(Original text: November 8, 2021)

About four and a half years ago, on May 16, 2017, we published an article with the same headline, word for word: “Will there be a new war in Bosnia?” The usual discourse that was regularly put in front of us was also in the headlines of the newspapers last week: “There could be a war in Bosnia at any moment”, “Bosnia has never been closer to armed conflict since the war”, “Bosnia” war looks at a single spark”. Those who follow Bosnia know that nothing is as it seems in Bosnia. Just as the war broke out 25 years ago when no one thought it would be possible, today the war is just as distant as the drums of war are beating.

We ended our article published years ago with the following lines:

“All those events and facts that are mentioned above brings one question: Can there be a war in Bosnia as a result of all of those political crises? The Western political analysts are very likely to speak about war in any part of the world. However, the dynamics of contemporary Bosnia is not the same as it was 20 years ago. Those nationalist leaders who took advantage of the war, know very well that in case of a war, they can easily lose their positions. Moreover, Bosnia with an disfunctional state very far away of being a threat to imperialism. Thus, a change in status quo in Bosnia is not favoured by imperialism. In addition to that, neither Croatia, who is just accepted in EU would risk to arm Bosnian Croats, nor Serbia who is just domesticated on the path to EU would prefer to risk the journey to EU by falling into the adventure of “Greater Serbia“. Bosnian Muslim politicians on the other side are very much busy with exploiting the limited resources of the country."

The criteria for becoming an expert on Bosnia are very simple: You visit Bosnia for a week as a tourist, take a tour in Bascarsija, eat pies and pastries, drink a cup of Bosnian coffee in a coffeehouse overlooking the Mostar bridge, take a selfie on the porch of the Tekija in Blagaj next to spring of the Una river, and you become an expert on Bosnia! If you have watched two Kusturica movies, you will have skills to analyse the whole social and political structure.

It is very interesting that when there are so many Bosnian experts in Turkey, whether they are Islamist, Turanist/nationalist, liberal or social democrat, regardless of their political identity, the information sources of these experts about Bosnia are often the Western media they sneer at. They follow Bosnia through channels that report on information originating from Brussels or Washington, and these sources say that war could break out at any moment in Bosnia today.

The reason is the ignorant statements of an idiot who is about to lose his seat and gets more ridiculous and aggressive as he approaches the end. (Sounds familiar, right!) We are talking about Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the tripartite presidential system in Bosnia.

Dodik, the leader of the autonomous Republic of Srpska in Bosnia, which was built on massacres and genocide and whose existence somehow continues even though the genocide was accepted by international courts, is known for his rudeness and arrogance.

This Dodik have nicely spoke nonsense again in mid-October that he was going to make certain institutions of Bosnia to leave the Republic of Srpska. Which institutions? The armed forces, the judiciary and the tax office, which are indispensable elements for the security, legal and financial system of a state. Mr Dodik would not be satisfied with this and would close the SIPA (State Investigation and Protection Agency) and the Constitutional Court.

Where does Dodik get the power to speak so indecently? First; from Russia. As NATO makes moves to swallow the Balkans, Russia threatens to put Balkans into chaos with her interventions.

But the main source of strength for Dodik's arrogance comes from the dysfunctionality of the Bosnian state. Much has been written on these pages: The Dayton Peace, which put an end to the Bosnian War, made the enmity between the warring parties eternal while putting an end to the war, and on top of that, it built an absurd governance regime that could not be seen in the history of the world. Two autonomous regions, 10 cantons, a special-status entity, a system where the president changes every 8 months according to his ethnic identity, and all this is in a small country like Bosnia!

It should come as no surprise that such a regime would become clogged. It should not surprise anyone that corruption and poverty are at an unbearable level in a country where politics is based on ethnic identities.

This is the source where Dodik finds his real power: A state that doesn't work!

He actually gets what he wants if he loses his mind, but he says that his aim is to gain more autonomy without destroying the territorial integrity of Bosnia, in order not to look like he is violating Dayton, and adds: “There is no war, there will be no war and there is no possibility of a war. !”

While saying this, he does not hesitate to hold an exercise on the Jahorina Mountain next to Sarajevo on October 22 with the participation of armoured vehicles, helicopters and special police forces armed with camouflage and assault weapons. Supposedly, it was an exercise carried out as part of the fight against terrorism.

The reactions against Dodik rose immediately. The US, which has already banned Dodik from entering the country, warned that if he continues his separatist moves, some sanctions will be applied. Gabriel Escobar, the new US special envoy for the Balkans, also arrived in Bosnia last Saturday and declared: “The closing down of institutions belonging to the Bosnian State by the Republic of Srspka is unacceptable according to Dayton.”

The new High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, demanded a response at the UN level to these statements of Dodik, and warned that these actions of Dodik would cause a crisis not in a single country, but in the international arena, and brought the usual discourse: “Bosnia is in danger of disintegrating and the possibility of an armed conflict is a very realistic prediction”

The probability was so realistic!

This statement made the headlines in the Western media, and the drums of war began to sound. After all, there is a "very realistic" statement expressed at first hand!

But it is also known that; The reality of the West and the reality of the Balkans often do not coincide.

Bosnia has an election next year. In the last election, Dodik lost very important positions and it is said that this rude, arrogant bandit may end up in the junk of politics in the next election. Dodik has nothing to offer his electorate, but warlike prowess and nationalist provocation.

This heroism and nationalist provocation is not only beneficial for Serbian nationalists, but also for Croat and Bosniak conservatists. Inevitable; nationalisms feed each other and they do not have to hide the corruption and impoverishment in the society.

Well, will there be a war?

To answer this question, the correct question would be: Who benefits from war? To those who use a country as their own farm? Those who have already turned the country into a slaughterhouse? Is it imperialism that holds the country in the palm of its hand? Who does it benefit?

Order is already established and no one wants to risk their own position. Moreover, all these nationalist leaders know very well that from now on, no one will fight for them except a handful of lunatic fanatics.