(Original text: Published in May 19, 2018)
Once he was
prohibited to hold pre-election meetings in European countries, Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan (RTE) by-passed this problem with a meeting in Sarajevo. When this clever
idea appeared in newspapers almost a month ago, neither MoFA of Republic of
Turkey, nor Embassy of Turkey in Sarajevo, nor Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina
made a statement about the issue. Later on when the posters of the meeting were
published in social media, we became aware that it was officially not a
pre-election meeting, but RTE was just to participate in the general assembly
of Union of European Turkish Democrats. It was a clever act for official
legitimization of the meeting but disputes continued in Bosnia since then,
becoming fiercer everyday.
RTE, who is
a professional in polarizing a society showed his talent in Bosnia as well.
While the
disputes are going on, AKP supporters flowed in Sarajevo. Some Bosnians are fine
with it. Tens of thousands of Turks will make shop keepers happy. But those who
are thinking more about the long term outcomes of this rally in Sarajevo are
more cautious.
Bosnian
public is almost divided into two camps regarding RTE’s rally in Sarajevo. The
disputes are going on. In the meantime RTE’s manipulative tactics are in duty
in Bosnia as well. (See:
Discourse
of hatred became dominant on the discussions about RTE’s rally in Sarajevo. People
began to insult each other heavily in social media. Seems that what we call “vindictive
generation” in Turkey, signifying the new typology of youngsters of post-truth
society have well thought strategies of manipulation to their Bosnian comrades.
İzetbegoviç
seems to have learnt a lot from his master as well. Last week, during the youth
meeting of SDA in Sarajevo/Ilidza, the member of presidency of the country
which is stuck in corruption and poverty, where hundreds of thousands of people
escaped from country since the war, who has nothing to offer to his citizens more
than a discourse of being a member of EU claimed: “West does not like our friend.
A lot of Bosnians with complexes do not like him as well”.
According
to Izetbegoviç, those who oppose RTE’s pre-election rally in Bosnia are people
with complexes.
Bosnia was
under Ottoman domination for 425 years and even those viziers, who were
assigned by the Ottoman Empire to Bosnian Vilayet were not that much
devoted to sultan. The viziers would stay not more than a day in Sarajevo on
their way to Travnik or Banja Luka paying attention not to disturb locals. Member
of presidency of the independent and sovereign state of Bosnia and Hercegovina
seems to be more loyal to sultan than the viziers of old times!
Surely, RTE’s
Sarajevo rally will have effects in internal and foreign politics of Bosnia. The
most important internal effect will be on right-wing SDA and the leader Bakir İzetbegoviç.
For some time RTE have overt support for SDA despite the objection of other parties
on involvement of Turkey in the internal politics of Bosnia. In SDA congress on
May 26, it is expected that Bakir İzetbegoviç will announce his wife Sebija İzetbegoviç’s
candidacy for presidency and surely RTE’s visit will be a valuable support for
Izetbegoviç.
Probably,
most serious impact of Erdoğan’s rally will be on EU-Bosnia relations. There
will certainly be some implications since Bosnia has accepted the political
action of a leader that is not allowed in European countries.
Most
probably, RTE’s Sarajevo rally will have the most serious negative impact on
post-Dayton politics of Bosnia, which is already in crisis. RTE’s political
involvement in Bosnia is very much in favour for the Bosnian Serb nationalist
leader Milorad Dodik. Recently, Dodik by-passes Belgrade and have direct
contact with Putin, which was highly criticised by Bosnian presidency. Now
thanks to RTE he has legitimate reasons for that. If Izetbegoviç allows RTE to
have rally in Sarajevo, Dodik may invite Putin to Banja Luka for his own
pre-election campaign. It is RTE’s pre-election rally which serves basis for Milorad
Dodik’s irresponsible political actions as well.
As it is
known, Putin’s reply to NATO’s enlargement in Balkans is destabilization of
Balkans. His message is clear: If NATO enlargement in Balkans continue, the
region will be destabilized. A strategy which opens path for armed conflicts in
the region, respectively in Bosnia. A strategy similar to how Putin implied in
Ukraine and what RTE -Putin’s buddy- does is an act supporting this strategy.
Another
issue is that, something which would never be expected happens in Bosnia: A
will against Turkey is rising in Bosnia as well, despite the cultural and
historical ties between Bosnia and Turkey. In social media, it is quite often
to read comments like; “In fact Turkey is not that much close friend of us”. It
is very often expressed that for Turkey Bosnia is taken for granted, while political
and economic relations of Turkey with Serbia is more densed. It is also
expressed widely that Turkish investments in Bosnia are more “procurement” than
new investments in order to create more jobs and support production.
It is also
taken attention by many that TİKA’s (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination
Agency) often uttered 300 million USD investment in Bosnia is mostly spent for
the renovation of historical Ottoman sites, but not for projects aiming to
reduce poverty or unemployment.
In addition
to all of those, after Vuçiç’s visit to Turkey two weeks ago when he was
welcome with flashy ceremonies in Ankara, that İzetbegoviç was never welcome
like that, some Bosnians ask: “If Erdoğan gives so much importance to his
relations with Vuçiç and Serbia, why does not he organize his pre-election
rally in Belgrade?”
