(Original text: Published in May 16, 2016)
Recent developments in Balkans, like admission
of Kosovo first to UEFA and to FIFA, re-opening of Ferhadija Mosque in Banja
Luka, the capital city of the Serbian entity, which was demolished during the
Bosnian War and lastly the demonstrations in Banja Luka by March 14, 2016 were
all enough to warm up Bosnian politics. Some talk about an armed conflict or
even a new war likely to happen in Bosnia? How realistic is this?
The rise of
the ultra-right politics was the focus of the previous article. One of the
points that we took attention was the fact that, those political parties who
were responsible from the breakup of Yugoslavia are again currently holding the
power in ex-Yugoslav republics. The main actors of the nationalist monsters are
again in the power. Even Seselj, from whom even Milosevic was discontent of his
extreme “practices” is again in the Serbian parliament
Like a
nightmare! Those who transformed Yugoslavia into a blood lake are governing the
countries again.
Moreover,
the recent developments in May 2016 made Bosnia to be more in political
tension.
If it winds
in Kosovo, Bosnia catches cold. It was in Kosovo where the first crisis in
Yugoslavia occurred, and followed by devastation of Bosnia. Since some time
Bosnian Serb Republic (Republika Srpska – RS) claims independency referring to
the independency of Kosovo. In May 2016, despite 24 votes against, with 28
votes Kosovo became member of UEFA and followed by membership to FIFA after a
meeting in Mexico in May 13 where membership of Gibraltar was also confirmed.
This was
like a cold shower for Serbia who still defines Kosovo as part of Serbia. However,
having no other political vision than EU membership, Serbia has not other
choice than accepting the bitter reality. Yet, last week (May 2016) the deputy
director of European Parliament and Kosovo Reporter Ulrike Lunacek warned once Serbia
again that Serbia cannot be member of EU without recognition of Kosovo as a
sovereign state.
Serbia is politically
locked in that sense, but the naughty brother, RS was not late to use this
opportunity and claimed that if UEFA and FIFA recognizes Kosovo, than they have
to accept membership of RS as well. Indeed, this is not so easy, since Dayton
Peace Accord does not allow such a thing.
Two weeks
ago (May 2016) Bosnia probably faced with one of the biggest political crisis
since the end of the war.
Ferhadija
Mosque in Banja Luka (capital city of RS), built in Ottoman Era and being demolished
with 16 more mosques at May 6-7, 1993 despite being under protection of UNESCO,
was restored and re-opened in May 7, 2016. When the reconstruction of the
mosque have started in 2001, the start-up ceremony was attacked by about a
thousand Cetniks (Serbian nationalists) firing the vehicles around and besieged
the building of Bosnian Islamic Union where 250 Bosnian Muslims as well as
Jacques Klein, the representative of UN in Bosnia and ambassadors of England,
Sweden and Pakistan were also inside. One Bosnian Muslim was killed and 30 people
were injured.
Nothing
feared happened in May 7, 2016 in the opening ceremony of Ferhadija Mosque
where highest security measures were taken and EUFOR battalions were ready to
involve in a possible conflict.
This is
partly due to the fact that Serbian nationalists have a bit of trouble
nowadays. Since the bully tempered RS president Milorad Dodik's SNSD lost 2014
elections, RS is in a serious political crisis. There were two demonstrations
last Sunday in Banja Luka organized by Dodik's supporters and opponents. Until
the elections in October 2016, it is expected that the political tension will
be tightened and may have serious implications in a country stuck into corruption
and poverty.
Since the
founder of RS; Radovan Karadzic is subjected as committing genocide in Bosnia,
the legitimacy of RS as a state founded on genocide, is more under question. No
doubt that this issue is well exploited by Bosnian Muslim and Bosnian Croat
politicians who cannot offer anything to their people than a corrupted state
and poor citizens. That is what they do the best for 20 years.
All those
events and facts that are mentioned above brings one question: Can there be a
war in Bosnia as a result of all of those political crises? The Western
political analysts are very likely to speak about war in any part of the world.
However, the dynamics of contemporary Bosnia is not the same as it was 20 years
ago. Those nationalist leaders who took advantage of the war, know very well
that in case of a war, they can easily lose their positions. Moreover, Bosnia
with a disfunctional state very far away of being a threat to imperialism.
Thus, a change in status quo in Bosnia is not favoured by imperialism. In addition
to that, neither Croatia, who is just accepted in EU would risk to arm Bosnian
Croats, nor Serbia who is just domesticated on the path to EU would prefer to
risk the journey to EU by falling into the adventure of “Greater Serbia“.
Bosnian Muslim politicians on the other side are very much busy with exploiting
the limited resources of the country.
If a war in
Bosnia will happen, this might be a war against all of those blood sucking
current politicians!
