(Original text: March 25, 2021)
It is obvious that Kosovo, and even the Balkans,
has entered a new era when Vetevendosje leader Albin Kurti established the new
cabinet by receiving a vote of confidence from the Assembly of Kosovo on March
22. It seems Kurti will address Kosovo's international politics within the
framework of a pragmatic understanding of foreign policy. In order to
understand this framework better, it is necessary to evaluate Kurti's influence
on Balkan politics.
We ended our previous
article by saying that we will discuss the political change in Kosovo within
the context of the Balkan politics of the EU, USA and Russia in the post-Trump
period. A glance at Balkan politics, the possible effects of the Kosovo
elections on the Balkan geography is necessary before the promised article.
Before that, we would
like to recall a point that we have criticized from time to time here: After
the Kosovo elections, we did not see the usual cliché headlines in the Western
media on possibility of a new warfare. Whenever there is an important
development in the Balkans, the Western media is equipped with expert opinions
claiming that "a new war may break out at any time". The Balkan “experts”
in Turkey as well, who are tired of the right-conservatist crap on Balkans, who
most often follow Balkans via Brussels or Washington fall into that fictive story
that "a war may occur at any moment in the Balkans war". But this
time, after the last elections, which unquestionably marks a new era in Kosovo,
and even heralds the end of the war politics of the former UCK commanders, Vetevendosje’s,
the party whose fundamental political programs aims at a “United Balkans” and her
proud leader Albin Kurti’s victory did not cause usual “war cries”.
The Balkan experts do not
care that Kurti is a follower of a program forging social development, social
justice, state intervention and advocate of the rule of law and put forward a
serious program against corruption and poverty, but what the new government
that prioritizes these policies will bring to Balkan politics is important.
Articles claiming that the political change in Kosovo will cause problems in
Albania, confuse Macedonia, and even that the end of the political crisis that
may emerge will touch Bosnia, will surely be released before the beginning of summer,
as usual. It is a fact that tensions in the region will increase due to the
coming to power of a party with a political program formed with the
"United Albania" range. Will this be increasing tension pregnant with
new crises and even wars? Is there any expectation of war in the Balkans this
Summer, as every Summer?
Let's look at the clues
given by the government established by Albin Kurti, who brought a new and
completely different breath to Kosovo's politics, regarding the new period.
Albin Kurti has not included other parties that have ruled Kosovo for years.
Kurti, who has kept Rugova's party LDK and former UCK leader Hashim Thaci's
party PDK out of the government, clearly shows that he will stay away from the
traditional political style in the Balkans. As a matter of fact, Vetevendosje,
who won the 14 February elections but won 58 out of 120 seats, went to the
current president Vjosa Osmani's party, Guxo (Courage), the Serbian List, the
Kosovo Roma party IRDK (Iniciativa e Re Demokratike e Kosovës: The New
Democracy Initiative of Kosovo) and the Turkish Democratic Party of Kosovo
received 67 votes, more than 61 votes they needed to establish the cabinet,
with the support of the minority parties holding 10 of the 120 seats.
The message given by
Kurti, who also includes the Serb minority in Kosovo in his government, is very
clear: It clearly demonstrates his goal to solve the Kosovo issue not with
Serbia, but with the Serbs in Kosovo, by internalizing the Serbs in Kosovo in internal
politics.
The first step that
Vetevendosje will take in this matter will be relations with Albania, whose
primary goal is "United Albania", even as the reason for entering the
political scene. The Albanian elections, to be held next month (April 25,
2021), have a significant impact on the determination of this policy. Albin
Kurti, who is a bit distanced with the PS (Socialist Party of Albanian) leader
Edi Rama, who is currently in power in Albania, hopes the opposition will win.
Noting that not the PS but the LSI (Lëvizja Socialiste për Integrim: Socialist
Movement for Integration) might be regarded as the party representing the
"left" in Albania and also noting the emphasis on “integration” in
LSI's name, Vetevendosje would prefer to see LSI in power. LSI has a similar
political program to Vetevendosye and received 8.4% of the votes in the first
elections in 2008, when it entered the parliament, it got 14.3% in the most
recent 2017 elections, but opinion polls predict that its votes will decrease
in next month’s election. Even if Edi Rama wins the elections, regardless of
who is in charge of Albania, the Kurti government will look to keep tight
relations in Albania, regardless of who is in the government, for the sake of
"unification".
Here we need to draw
attention to the fact that although Albania is thought to be the address of
"United Albania", historically the political center of the Albanian
national movement has always been Kosovo, and this phenomenon is still true
today. Therefore, it will not be surprising that Kosovo's politics also affect,
or even direct, politics in Albania. But Kurti will follow a policy that will
not allow for political polarization in Albania. Although it has an LSI
government in his heart, he will not hesitate to establish a pragmatic
relationship with the PS.
There is an expectation
that the real problem will arise in Macedonia, and this expectation has reasons
that cannot be ignored. About a quarter of Macedonia’s 2 million population is
Albanian. Of course the "United Albania" project also includes
Albanians, who make up the majority of the population in the west of Macedonia.
The newly foemed Vetevendosye government has not yet made shocking statements
about Albanians in Macedonia, but Kurti has already called for the Macedonian Albanians
in the diaspora to do their best to be counted in the census to be held in
Macedonia between April 1-21 in 20 years. Despite this conjuncture, Kurti will
avoid any action that would come into conflict with the moderate Zaev
government in Macedonia. Sacrificing Zaev to the hawks in Macedonia is a
strategy Kurti would definitely not prefer in Macedonia.
Erdoğan Regime was one of
the first to celebrate Kurti's election victory. The government of Turkey's
policy on Kosovo is clear: Unconditional support in every situation even in the
situations that the Turkish schools were
closed justified by insufficient number of students or when street signs including
Turkish translation were removed or Turkish radio channels were not given new
frequence lines. Turkey has been one of the first to recognize Kosova’s
independence in 2008 and this was very important for Kosovo in order to gain
very precious support of Islamic countries through support of Turkey, who had
then considerable power in Middle East politics. Albin Kurti and Vetevendosje also still cares
about Turkey's presence in the Balkans. He said that the decion of Kosovo to
open the embassy of the Zionist entity in Jerusalem will be re-evaluated following reaction of
Erdoğan to this decision. Kosovo Turkish Democratic Party (KTDP) in the cabinet
have given the Ministry of Regional Development which will provide a positive
contribution to relations with Turkey.
Much has changed since
2008. Turkey have lost much of her international diplomatic power sacrificed to
Erdoğan’s personal deeds. The arrest of 6 Turks in Kosovo in 2018 and the
kidnapping of them by the MIT caused great reaction Kosovo.
The Kurti government,
which has shaped its domestic political moves with a program to fight against
corruption and poverty and to ensure developmental and social justice, and
which is clear that it will follow a political line that avoids polarization
and conflict in the region, will shape its foreign policy on a global scale in
a very pragmatic and rational framework. In this context, if new Kosovo
government will have to make a chose between Zionist entity and Turkey, an unexpected
decion would not be gathered as a suprise. It would not be a surprise if Kosovo
will choose Zionist entity, who would like to cooperate with a realiable and stable
ally with a Muslim majority in the Balkans, like they did with Azerbaijan, sacrificing
support of Turkey who is already stuck in foriegn politics.
In our next article, we
will look at what kind of relations Kosovo can develop with international
actors, especially the USA, within the framework of a pragmatic foreign policy
in the new process.
